Which is the first stage of top-down fundamental analysis?

The first stage of top-down fundamental analysis is economic analysis to determine the business cycle stage. In this approach, analysts start by assessing the broader economic environment before diving into specific sectors or stocks. Understanding the business cycle is crucial because it influences corporate earnings, consumer behavior, and overall market performance.

By analyzing macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth rates, unemployment, inflation, and consumer confidence, analysts can identify which phase of the business cycle the economy is currently in—be it expansion, peak, contraction, or trough. This context helps in making informed decisions about which sectors might outperform or underperform relative to others during a particular business cycle phase.

After determining the economic context, analysts can proceed to assess which sectors may be favored or disadvantaged based on their cyclical sensitivity, leading to subsequent stages such as sector analysis and individual stock selection. Hence, establishing the business cycle stage lays the foundational framework for all subsequent analysis.